Do you think 4D is predictable

First of all, I am not encouraging you to buy 4D. And I will not going to use the information based on my analysis to buy 4D as well, swear to god (crossing fingers).

As the curiosity hit me, a question came to my mind long long time ago - Will the 4D predictable? In order to reveal the truth behind, I need to dig deeply into the 4D history from past until present.

I Need Info

First, I went to a 4D website (http://www.4d2u.com) to retrieve information that I need, such as date, draw id, draw number, and also last but not least, 4D numbers. Writing a script to do this task is pretty easy and efficient. And the script itself will also update the database automatically whenever encounter the latest information posted in that website. By the way, that website also displayed a pool result of people votes for "Do you think 4D is predictable?". The result stated that 58.3% people agree, 29.5% people say may be, and 12.2% people refuse it totally. Hmm. Interesting. Majority of people are said 4D is predictable. Is it really truth? Let's move on the analysis.

My Favorite Number - 4896

Within numbers from 0000 to 9999, I picked my favorite number - 4896, as a experimental number for the rest of the analysis. The full information of number 4896 listed inside table below:

A graph of Drawid vs. Number is plotted as below:


No doubt, those spots are showing a linear trend on the graph.

Least Square Method! I Need You Now.

In order to find out the equation of that linear trend, least square method come in handy. For more information about least square method, see these
http://mathworld.wolfram.com/LeastSquaresFitting.html
http://www.efunda.com/math/leastsquares/lstsqr1dcurve.cfm

Then the graph with a linear equation result of least square method shown at below:


R-Squared Value

From the graph above, you might already noticed that R2 = 0.9835. What is R-squared actually? Well, R-Squared is a statistical term saying how good one term is at predicting another. If R-Squared is 1.0 then given the value of one term, you can perfectly predict the value of another term. If R-Squared is 0.0, then knowing one term doesn't not help you know the other term at all. More generally, a higher value of R-Squared means that you can better predict one term from another.

R-Squared is most often used in linear regression. Given a set of data points, linear regression gives a formula for the line most closely matching those points. It also gives an R-Squared value to say how well the resulting line matches the original data points.

0.9835 is quite a high R-squared value. It means that the probability of success in next prediction is 98.35%. By using the linear equation above, we can calculate the next drawid for number 4896:

next_drawid = 287.16 * next_number - 330.56
next_drawid = 287.16 * 15 - 330.56
next_drawid = 3976.84
next_drawid = 3976 or 3977

When will be the drawid is 3976 or 3977 ? Bear in mind! Wait for that day coming because the chance you will win is 98%!!!

Conclusion

As a conclusion, I can't say that 4D is predictable just because based on one analysis on one number. I still have 9999 different numbers to go. It's up to you to believe it or not, and it is depends on your luck as well. Good Luck!